So Was I Right? Year 2000 Predictions for the Future of the PC

In 1999, as the high-tech world prepared for the big bite of the Year 2000 computer bug which never really chomped down, I wrote a newspaper column on how far the PC had come since IBM showed off its first model in 1981.

While lots of things have changed since this column was written on Dec. 29, 1999, one line still rings true: "The most important PC improvements may have been the ones that made life simpler."

And it looks like one prediction, especially for those of you reading this on your cell phone or iPod, clearly came true: "Where will the PC go in the next ten years? Probably into your pocket."

What hardware were you using in 2000 and (*gasp!*) are you still using any of it now? My 1995-vintage HP DeskJet 855C inkjet printer is still humming with the aid of a parallel port-to-USB adapter.

Where will we be in the coming decades? I hope one of you will come by the old folks home to tell me.

***

The Paper PC

By Robert S. Anthony

Stadium Circle Features

The PC in 2000: Where Do We Go From Here?

     It has been said that if the history of the Earth were compressed into a 24-hour video, humans wouldn't appear until the last three seconds. Imagine how hard you'd have to watch to detect the short history of the personal computer.

     As thousands of office workers spend the New Year's weekend basking in the glow of computer screens as they watch for ``Year 2000'' problems, it's a good time to take a quick look back at how far personal computing has come since IBM trotted out its first PC in 1981.

     In less than 20 years the PC has evolved from a text-only, limited-purpose office device into a machine that can handle multimedia communication as easily as it can process words.

     Before you worry about what the hardware of tomorrow will look like, take a look at what we've already left behind. Remember the 5.25-inch floppy disk? Have you ever connected a PC to an online service by pushing a telephone handset into the rubber cups of an acoustic coupler? Remember when the worst desk in an office was the one next to the screeching daisy-wheel printer? All of these items have disappeared since their heyday in the 1980s.

     Leaf through an old computer magazine and you'll get an idea of how segmented the personal computing market used to be. In 1987 the most popular software titles were available not only in IBM- and Macintosh-compatible versions but also in formats for the Commodore 64 (pictured above), Commodore Amiga, Apple II, Apple II GS and Atari ST.

     PCs evolved at a startling pace in the 1990s. In a 1992 column I suggested that a good home office PC would have at least a ``386SX microprocessor, an 80-megabyte hard drive and 3.5-inch and 5.25-inch floppy drives. If you use programs written to run with Microsoft Windows, four megabytes of user memory are also required.''

     Later that same year I reviewed a fledgling online service named America Online. ``With attractive rates and easy-to-use software, AOL seems to be attempting to strike a compromise between the colorful, but sometimes slow graphics of Prodigy and the speed and variety of text-only services like GEnie and CompuServe. The funny thing is, the compromise actually seems to work.'' Of course America Online has since become the world's largest online service.

     PCs have evolved by knocking down technical barriers and widening data bottlenecks. Remember how DOS (Disk Operating System) limited programs to using no more than 640 kilobytes of memory? Advances in memory management and Microsoft Windows broke through that limitation.

     Technical breakthroughs such as the PCI (Peripheral Component Interconnect) bus and the AGP (Advanced Graphics Port) bus provided the wide data pipelines that allow today's PCs to process high-resolution color graphics and full-motion video as quickly as old PCs could underline text.

     The most important PC improvements may have been the ones that made life simpler. For example, today's memory cards snap in place much easier than the old multi-legged chips. Today's USB (Universal Serial Bus) port offers a simpler way to connect peripherals to a PC than the old-style serial and parallel ports.

     Then again, some things haven't changed: Most personal computers are still beige and good units are still expensive.

     Has the PC reached the ``must have'' status of the television and other household appliances? Not by a long shot, but PCs seem to be making themselves a little more indispensable each year.

     Where will the PC go in the next ten years? Probably into your pocket. As technology makes it possible--and affordable--to surf the World Wide Web with a portable device, the desktop PC may fade into secondary status as a data-storage device or as a base station for communications.

***

Original column Copyright 1999 Stadium Circle Features
Other text Copyright 2010 Stadium Circle Features

Photo Copyright OldComputers.Net

CompuServe Classic: So Long, Old Friend

No, your monitor won't blank out, your Internet connection won't stall and your PC won't crash, but a major event is about to ripple across the Internet today: CompuServe Classic is closing.

After 30 years the plug will be pulled on what was once the finest online service on the globe. (CompuServe 2000, a newer iteration of CompuServe will continue.)

And the saddest part is that it ends not with a bang, but with a whimper. Ask anyone about CompuServe today and the response will probably be "Are they still around?"

And that's not fair for a service that once meant so much to cyberspace--long before we started calling it cyberspace. It dates to a time when most home PCs didn't even have hard disks, just floppy disk drives, and when most PC users never went online.

CompuServe, the corporate entity, dates to 1969 but the CompuServe Classic online service for consumers debuted in 1979. In 1987 it was the flagship of online services with 380,000 users. A 1991 TV commercial trumpets CompuServe as the only online service with more than a half-million members.

Unfortunately time, and its acquisition by AOL, has not been kind to CompuServe. In recent years it has barely been marketed. Its Web site looks like a throwback to the (gasp!) 20th century. The "build" date on version 4.0.2 of CompuServe for Windows NT, the latest version of the access software for CompuServe Classic, is January 11, 1999.

CompuServe Classic's demise will come six years to the day after MCI Mail, another once-dominant online service, went dark. The text-only service had a Spartan interface but was terribly reliable. Many major corporations used it as their default e-mail service.

CompuServe Classic was home to forums for every profession and special interest imaginable. For example, the old Journalism Forum attracted journalists from around the world and was a hotbed for some of the most lively flaming sessions (that means trading insults, young folks) as well as many intelligent debates.

CompuServe Classic introduced many of us cyberdinosaurs to services we now take for granted.

Online shopping? Stock quotes? Worldwide weather forecasts? CompuServe was providing all of that in the 1980s. Who needs color graphics, music and streaming videos? CompuServe could provide users with what they needed with plain text on a slow dial-up connection.

Today there's Orbitz, Expedia, Travelocity and dozens of other travel sites on the Web, but in the 1980s it was the American Airlines EAASY SABRE service on CompuServe that introduced many of us to online airline ticket booking.

I still remember the joy of watching those first characters crawl slowly across the screen of my Tandy 100 laptop at 300 baud when I opened my CompuServe account in December 1985. How slow is that? Most of us can type faster than a 300-baud connection can send characters.

Even as newer services like America Online began to attract more users and overtake it, CompuServe managed to maintain an air of dignity. Its forums were more professional, its users were more cyber-savvy and the depth of its services and software libraries were far deeper than those of other services.

For example, when AOL started offering unlimited dial-up access in 1996, it didn't have enough modems in service to keep up with the spike in traffic. The result? Constant busy signals. Some users would go to sleep with their AOL connections on so they would have access to it in the morning.

CompuServe, on the other hand, always had the data capacity it needed. AOL's woes led to a memorable CompuServe TV commercial which ended with the punch line: "CompuServe: Get On with It." That bit of cockiness was short-lived, however, as AOL absorbed CompuServe in 1997.

So who will care when when CompuServe Classic goes dark today? I will as I retire my 23-year-old user ID : 72407,3343.

So long, old friend. And thanks.

NOTE: If you're a CompuServe Classic member and you haven't converted your e-mail address to the new system, put this blog down and do it now. You won't be able to do so after today.

Copyright 2009 Stadium Circle Features

CompuServe Classic E-Mail: The Next Generation

As CompuServe Classic readies for its final log off on June 30, CompuServe Member Services has thrown the switch on a migration utility that allows Classic members to keep their e-mail accounts alive.

Gone will be CompuServe Classic's old number-comma-number e-mail address format and in its place will be a standard POP3 e-mail address with the familiar "@" sign. Many CompuServe Classic users already have alternate POP3 addresses for their accounts. Those addresses will be preserved in the transition. Just don't expect to connect to the Internet through a CompuServe dial-up number after June 30--those are on their way out too.

CompuServe Classic members must convert to the new e-mail system by going to the CompuServe Mail Center by June 30. Here's what happens once they get there:

You can start the conversion process by logging in with a Classic numerical e-mail address or with the alternate POP3 access information.

Once you click "continue" on the screen above, the next one asks for some basic demographic information and offers you a chance to pick a new password.

From there you need to agree to the Terms of Service by typing in the letters that appear in the image box.

If everything goes well, you'll get the following welcome screen.

Finally, clicking the right button takes you to your new inbox.

As for accessing the new e-mail service with Outlook or another e-mail client, you'll need the new server settings. You can retrieve your e-mail as a POP3 or IMAP account with or without a secure connection (SSL). The port setting is found in the advanced settings section of Outlook and other e-mail clients.

The POP3 settings are:

POP: pop.csi.com port 110 (SSL = port 995)

SMTP: smtp.csi.com port 587

The IMAP settings are:

IMAP: imap.csi.com port 143 (SSL = port 993)

SMTP: smtp.csi.com port 587

So how did it work on my CompuServe Classic account? So far so good, but other users have reported some problems.

What about you?

Copyright 2009 Stadium Circle Features

World's oldest e-mail address? Nah!

Happy Birthday 72407,3343!

(Note: Mailing address on card is obsolete.)

Today my CompuServe e-mail address turns 22 years old. Think of how many online services, Web portals, e-mail services and other Internet-borne businesses have come and gone in that time.

I still remember that magic moment in 1985 when I dialed in and signed on and waited -- and waited -- and waited -- for that first CompuServe welcome message to crawl across the monochrome screen of my cutting-edge Tandy 100 laptop.

And I do mean crawled -- at 300 bits per second. That's 300 bits per second -- not kilobits or megabits! Yes, in 1985 most of us could type faster than our computers could transmit data.

At that time CompuServe was by far the top name in online services, offering more useful content and more access to important databases than any other service.

The fact that you could also use it to send e-mail to was almost an afterthought since at that time you could only send messages to other CompuServe members. Other online services of the time had the same limitation. That explains the many e-mail address at the bottom of my old business card (see above).

Of course things changed over time as CompuServe initially opened special gateways to MCI Mail and other select online services and later opened the gates wide open so that members could contact any e-mail address.

CompuServe, born in 1969, is still alive today, although it's hard to tell from its rather lame home page (www.compuserve.com). America Online, which acquired CompuServe in 1998, barely markets the service and seems intent on letting the venerable old name peter out through membership attrition.

Who would have thought in 1985, when cell phones were the size of milk cartons, that we would be checking e-mail on shirt-pocket-size handsets today.

No, my CompuServe address isn't the the oldest e-mail address in the world by a long shot, but... Do you have an older one?

This curious mind would like to know.

Text and image Copyright 2007 Stadium Circle Features